Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:14:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x174b…f5dd
sports · 14 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$698 +81%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$348 · open +$350
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$734
Realized+$348
Unrealized+$350
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage19d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 4 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$262
14 days+$352
30 days+$348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 29¢ 80¢ $202 $565 +$363 (+180%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 34¢ $167 $158 −$9 (-5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $79 +$87 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $237 +$188 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $8 +$9 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $25 +$47 +188%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $25 +$43 +172%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $25 +$20 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 88% +$611
other 12% +$90
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 52m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 55m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $50 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $75 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 30h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $11 31h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $30 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $25 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $25 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $39 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $197 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $8 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $25 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $25 9d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $5 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $25 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $98 16d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 29¢ $104 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $24 18d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 100¢ $45 18d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 54¢ $25 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+43.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +40.3% +26.9% 67% 67% +54.3%
≤30d 10 +58.5% +43.4% 70% 70% +57.3%
≤90d 10 +58.5% +43.4% 70% 70% +57.3%
all 10 +58.5% +43.4% 70% 70% +57.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.4% 70% +57.3%
10% +29.7% 70% +42.3%
15% +17.1% 70% +28.5%
20% +5.7% 60% +15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $733.91 · official $733.96 (match) · 36 history records