Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x174e…0794 crypto 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%76W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$9
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 27 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 76 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses76 / 0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)76 / 83
History coverage221d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 92¢ 93¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 93¢ 92¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 13 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $125 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 15? Jun 05 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 13? May 14 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 12 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 05 $127 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 03 $3 $0 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? May 03 $3 $0 +2%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on May 1? May 03 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 26 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 12? Apr 13 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $127 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 1? Apr 02 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $130 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? Mar 20 $131 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 13? Mar 17 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 9? Mar 12 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 4? Mar 08 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 1? Mar 03 $129 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $121 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil Feb 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 14? Feb 14 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 8? Feb 09 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on February 3 Feb 04 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $120 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,800 on January 24? Jan 25 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $127 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY No 93¢ $4 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 92¢ $6 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $127 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $123 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $122 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $125 11d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $122 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $123 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $122 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $127 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $120 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $114 49d
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $3 58d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $4 58d
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr BUY No 94¢ $3 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $122 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 66d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $4 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $125 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $127 73d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $125 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $125 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $130 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.86 · official $31.86 (match) · 159 history records