Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1752…c30a sports 258 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$412 (-5%) realized −$412 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%86W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$94
14 days+$138
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$406
crypto 23% −$569
world 16% +$582
other 13% −$34
finance 3% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -18.1% -25.9% 29% 26% -0.7%
≤30d 58 -12.9% -21.2% 28% 24% -10.6%
≤90d 216 -21.5% -29.0% 32% 31% -19.9%
all 250 -18.2% -26.0% 34% 33% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 33% -15.3%
10% -33.1% 32% -23.4%
15% -39.5% 29% -30.8%
20% -45.5% 24% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$19 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$412
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses86 / 164
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions4
Markets (closed)250 / 258
History coverage244d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $131 $132 +$1 (+1%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 57¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$23 -46%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $101 +$53 +52%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2 +$3 +167%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 $0 -37%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -53%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $152 −$26 -17%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $131 +$52 +40%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $11 +$21 +183%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $150 +$5 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $12 +$24 +197%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $105 +$17 +16%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$75 +365%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $11 −$9 -76%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $11 +$53 +474%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$57 +1115%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$30 +146%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $6 −$6 -96%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $6 +$9 +150%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $47 −$31 -67%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $35 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $132 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 18¢ $12 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 29¢ $27 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 16h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 14¢ $5 28h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 37h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 37h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 37h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 40h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 47¢ $126 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $152 41h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $131 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 97¢ $150 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $105 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.13 · official $179.84 · 566 history records