Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T00:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
17 0x1757…4a8d other 94 markets active 4h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$652 (+8%) realized +$657 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%57W / 33L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% +$623
other 29% +$4
weather 5% +$17
finance 1% +$4
tech 1% +$17
crypto 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.9% -6.9% 57% 29% -7.7%
≤30d 12 +14.0% +3.2% 75% 42% -5.7%
≤90d 35 +6.6% -3.6% 71% 29% -8.9%
all 90 -2.0% -11.3% 63% 37% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 37% -2.0%
10% -19.8% 20% -11.3%
15% -27.5% 14% -19.9%
20% -34.6% 13% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$23 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized+$657
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses57 / 33
Open positions4
Markets (closed)90 / 94
History coverage481d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 +$5 +98%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau breakup before August? Jun 28 $35 +$2 +4%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? Jun 28 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 28 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Jun 22 $158 +$6 +4%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +20%
Will more than 410 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? Jun 08 $140 +$7 +5%
Will fewer than 200 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? Jun 08 $22 +$2 +7%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +54%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 06 $2 +$1 +58%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? May 29 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 29 $37 −$10 -26%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? May 27 $17 −$16 -96%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 27 $67 $0 +0%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? May 25 $364 +$17 +5%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $63 +$9 +14%
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following May 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general ele May 13 $26 +$5 +20%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele May 12 $219 +$7 +3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $56 +$3 +5%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 11 $87 −$40 -46%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 11 $30 −$21 -69%
Will 260 to 289 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026? May 11 $2 +$7 +420%
Will 170 to 199 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026? May 08 $83 +$9 +11%
Will fewer than 140 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026 May 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? May 06 $21 +$1 +3%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $15 +$1 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 24? Apr 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 140 to 169 tornadoes occur in the United States in April 2026? Apr 27 $49 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $13 +$1 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2 Apr 16 $244 +$32 +13%
Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30? Apr 07 $209 +$6 +3%
Will Avi Lewis win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? Mar 30 $47 +$6 +14%
Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? Mar 26 $50 +$6 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 28? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Mar 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Feb 28 $20 +$3 +16%
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February? Feb 26 $21 −$19 -91%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 25 $3 +$7 +203%
Will there be 14–16 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $19 −$19 -99%
Will there be 10–12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Will there be 8–10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $4 −$4 -95%
Will there be 12–14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will there be less than 8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026? Jan 28 $5 −$4 -72%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 13? Jan 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 5h
Will more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 8h
Will more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 8h
Will more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 8h
Will more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 8h
Will more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 8h
Will more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 8h
Will more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 8h
Will more than 310 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 8h
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau breakup before August? SELL No 89¢ $37 8h
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY No 79¢ $37 9h
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2 BUY Yes 16¢ $7 9h
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? SELL No 63¢ $16 9h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 82¢ $28 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2 SELL Yes 16¢ $5 5d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY No 81¢ $4 6d
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2 BUY Yes 15¢ $24 6d
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY No 81¢ $131 6d
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen SELL Yes 18¢ $27 6d
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 SELL No 83¢ $128 6d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 6d
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 15¢ $9 9d
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 BUY No 80¢ $45 9d
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen BUY Yes 14¢ $14 9d
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 BUY No 79¢ $77 9d
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen SELL No 86¢ $92 9d
Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 SELL Yes 22¢ $24 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.00 · official $233.04 (match) · 422 history records