Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x175c…a8c2 other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$160 (-0%) realized −$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate26%34W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$708per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$592now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$12
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$43
politics 36% −$36
sports 17% −$74
culture 2% −$2
world 1% −$22
crypto 1% +$3
economics 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 74 -18.4% -26.2% 8% 1% -10.2%
all 130 -5.2% -14.2% 26% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 7% -9.7%
10% -22.4% 7% -18.3%
15% -29.9% 7% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,044) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$592
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses34 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage139d
Avg bet$708
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $593 $592 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,057 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,709 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,357 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $919 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,525 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,737 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $400 +$2 +1%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,174 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,692 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,090 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,074 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,419 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,408 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,406 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,691 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $950 −$2 -0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control May 02 $161 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control May 02 $181 +$1 +0%
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 02 $222 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $495 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $2,874 −$3 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,747 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,797 −$2 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,793 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,778 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $863 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $237 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $237 3h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 4h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $211 6h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $593 28h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $634 3d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $635 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $729 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $730 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $633 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $633 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $881 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $882 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $732 11d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $733 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $924 12d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $926 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $917 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $919 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $872 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $873 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $984 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $985 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $741 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $742 16d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $650 18d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $651 18d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $407 21d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $407 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $418 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $592.46 · official $592.46 (match) · 411 history records