Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x175f…dd2b sports 866 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$175 (-1%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate62%540W / 326L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$32
14 days+$127
30 days−$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$55
crypto 19% +$54
world 8% −$282
other 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 362 -3.5% -12.7% 73% 41% -8.4%
≤30d 756 -7.2% -16.0% 62% 44% -11.7%
≤90d 866 -2.4% -11.7% 62% 44% -11.3%
all 866 -2.4% -11.7% 62% 44% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 44% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 29% -19.8%
15% -27.9% 20% -27.6%
20% -35.0% 15% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses540 / 326
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions0
Markets (closed)866 / 866
History coverage80d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 866 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $17 +$3 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +13%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $12 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2395 history records