Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:51:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
17 0x1762…1f75 politics 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$434 (+0%) realized +$433 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$988per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$87
other 33% −$310
sports 10% +$804
culture 3% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
tech 1% −$2
world 1% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 62 +1.5% -8.2% 5% 2% -8.8%
all 137 +0.2% -9.3% 18% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 13% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 13% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 11% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,303) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$10 · ×6.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$1,146
Realized+$433
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage132d
Avg bet$988
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $891 $893 +$1 (+0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $253 $253 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $250 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $236 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $1,114 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,676 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,561 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,851 −$5 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $2,861 −$5 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,661 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $1,642 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $1,653 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $4,846 −$6 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,383 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 04 $797 +$1 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $2,077 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,065 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,206 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,196 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,199 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? May 20 $222 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 20 $804 +$812 +101%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $1,293 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,094 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,090 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,377 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,267 −$4 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,929 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,941 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $4,305 −$4 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,290 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,293 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,303 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,303 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1,691 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,299 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,313 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,895 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $959 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $2,929 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,350 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $944 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $1,874 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $253 54m
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $216 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $216 4h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $240 28h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $240 29h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $569 2d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $570 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $249 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $250 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $236 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $236 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $205 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $206 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $214 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $215 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $892 11d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,673 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,676 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,594 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,597 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,652 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,664 15d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,667 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,658 20d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,661 20d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,640 20d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,642 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,145.81 · official $1,145.81 (match) · 431 history records