Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:40:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1764…87b1 other 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$93 (-0%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%6W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$15
politics 21% −$9
sports 18% −$69
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 105 -7.4% -16.2% 6% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 3% -9.8%
10% -24.2% 3% -18.5%
15% -31.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -38.2% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses6 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)105 / 107
History coverage134d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $289 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $234 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $463 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $454 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $222 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $391 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $197 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $449 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $473 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $271 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $470 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $243 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $193 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $273 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $244 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $222 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $237 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 11 $264 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $218 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $253 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 10 $259 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $197 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $242 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 08 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 07 $230 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $227 $0 -0%
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 07 $204 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $442 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 05 $244 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $191 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 04 $227 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $272 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $194 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $207 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $388 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 02 $234 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 23d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $215 23d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $215 31d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 31d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 40d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $250 64d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $250 65d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $222 65d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $222 65d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $190 65d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $190 66d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $237 66d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $237 66d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $245 66d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $245 66d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $196 66d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $196 66d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $197 66d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $197 66d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $239 66d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $239 67d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 67d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $240 67d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $190 67d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $190 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.92 · official $69.92 (match) · 310 history records