Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x1764…6c76 other 53 markets active 21h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+11%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%26W / 27L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days+$16
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$7
sports 22% +$7
crypto 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -19.5% -27.2% 44% 40% -28.2%
≤30d 53 +4.0% -5.9% 49% 47% -1.5%
≤90d 53 +4.0% -5.9% 49% 47% -1.5%
all 53 +4.0% -5.9% 49% 47% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 47% -1.5%
10% -14.9% 42% -10.9%
15% -23.1% 36% -19.5%
20% -30.6% 32% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses26 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage15d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 28 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 +$2 +158%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +89%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +134%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +61%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -92%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +4%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 $0 +8%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 $0 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +139%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$8 +784%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $4 +$14 +332%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4 +$3 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4 +$3 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +52%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +24%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +16%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $2 20h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 28h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 42h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $2 42h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $1 43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 44h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 45h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 3d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $3 4d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records