Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:33:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1764…b41a crypto 571 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-4%) realized −$58 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%342W / 228L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day46.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$86
14 days−$81
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$84
world 2% +$1
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 509 -8.9% -17.6% 59% 53% -15.5%
≤30d 570 -7.3% -16.1% 60% 53% -14.7%
≤90d 570 -7.3% -16.1% 60% 53% -14.7%
all 570 -7.3% -16.1% 60% 53% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 53% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 44% -22.9%
15% -31.5% 34% -30.4%
20% -38.2% 27% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses342 / 228
Open positions1
Markets (closed)570 / 571
History coverage15d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day46.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 195 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 1068 history records