Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:52:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
17 0x1764…b41a crypto 638 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$49 (-3%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate60%385W / 252L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day45.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$75
14 days−$72
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$72
world 1% +$1
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 534 -5.9% -14.9% 61% 55% -14.3%
≤30d 637 -6.3% -15.2% 60% 54% -13.5%
≤90d 637 -6.3% -15.2% 60% 54% -13.5%
all 637 -6.3% -15.2% 60% 54% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 54% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 45% -21.7%
15% -30.8% 35% -29.3%
20% -37.5% 27% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses385 / 252
Open positions1
Markets (closed)637 / 638
History coverage17d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day45.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 637 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 219 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$16 +335%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.98 · official $1.92 (match) · 1183 history records