Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:30:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x1768…89e4 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$41 (-2%) realized +$136 · open −$177
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$25
14 days+$147
30 days+$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$158
crypto 35% −$56
sports 12% +$148
politics 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +47.6% +33.5% 88% 88% +32.8%
≤30d 15 +12.0% +1.3% 67% 67% +22.2%
≤90d 25 +20.2% +8.8% 64% 64% +2.7%
all 25 +20.2% +8.8% 64% 64% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 64% +2.7%
10% -1.6% 64% -7.1%
15% -11.1% 40% -16.1%
20% -19.8% 36% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$32 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$501
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$177
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions20
Markets (closed)25 / 45
History coverage75d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $120 $90 −$30 (-25%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 94¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+25%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 30¢ $120 $57 −$63 (-52%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+70%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? No 51¢ 52¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? No 64¢ 59¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 61¢ 28¢ $33 $16 −$17 (-53%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 38¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-28%)
Will Mclaren Mastercard have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 64¢ 18¢ $41 $12 −$29 (-71%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 27? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? No 35¢ 33¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 60¢ 14¢ $36 $8 −$28 (-77%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-61%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$12 +113%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$12 +119%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 25? Jun 25 $11 +$3 +30%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 24 $111 −$33 -30%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $101 +$54 +54%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$116 +114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $99 +$32 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 13 $58 −$58 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 13 $60 +$15 +25%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 12 $100 +$32 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 12 $10 +$33 +329%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 12 $10 +$8 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 12 $10 +$23 +230%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 12 $35 +$10 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $18 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY No 51¢ $26 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? BUY No 64¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 26? BUY No 35¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 25? SELL No 29¢ $14 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 45¢ $10 24h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 25? BUY No 20¢ $11 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 25? BUY No 44¢ $10 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? SELL No 91¢ $17 25h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 24? SELL No 90¢ $17 25h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 25¢ $10 26h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 37¢ $10 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? BUY No 52¢ $10 26h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 24? BUY No 51¢ $10 26h
Will Mclaren Mastercard have the highest constructor score at the 2026 BUY Yes 65¢ $15 26h
Will Mclaren Mastercard have the highest constructor score at the 2026 BUY Yes 65¢ $14 26h
Will Mclaren Mastercard have the highest constructor score at the 2026 BUY Yes 63¢ $12 26h
Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austri BUY Yes 61¢ $13 26h
Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austri BUY Yes 59¢ $12 26h
Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austri BUY Yes 59¢ $11 26h
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austri BUY Yes 64¢ $12 26h
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austri BUY Yes 60¢ $11 26h
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Austri BUY Yes 57¢ $10 26h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 75¢ $50 4d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $501.08 · official $501.09 (match) · 84 history records