Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:39:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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17 0x1769…94ef sports 784 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 78d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$809 (-2%) realized −$445 · open −$364
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%374W / 394L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$719est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$886now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$499
14 days−$521
30 days+$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,623
other 2% +$389
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -23.4% -30.7% 45% 45% -22.6%
≤30d 240 -4.8% -13.9% 49% 46% -7.3%
≤90d 768 -4.3% -13.4% 49% 46% -11.3%
all 768 -4.3% -13.4% 49% 46% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 46% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 45% -19.8%
15% -29.2% 41% -27.5%
20% -36.2% 38% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$50 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$886
Realized−$445
Unrealized−$364
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses374 / 394
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$719
Open positions14
Markets (closed)768 / 784
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 768 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $246 $275 +$29 (+12%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 69¢ 67¢ $202 $197 −$6 (-3%)
Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30? Yes 56¢ 26¢ $361 $167 −$193 (-54%)
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $52 $61 +$9 (+17%)
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Karol Rosa 52¢ 52¢ $52 $52 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 26¢ 25¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-4%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $38 $33 −$4 (-12%)
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight, Main Card) Melsik Baghdasaryan 25¢ 28¢ $22 $25 +$2 (+10%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+6%)
Will Ivar Stenberg be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 25¢ 3¢ $62 $9 −$53 (-86%)
Will Uruguay be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-56%)
Will Tatsuro Taira be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 3¢ $42 $4 −$38 (-92%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 73¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs TDK 62¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $24 −$24 -98%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $298 −$298 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $327 +$69 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $80 +$20 +25%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $21 +$19 +91%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $100 +$100 +100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $552 −$526 -95%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $49 +$38 +79%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $40 +$40 +100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $509 +$383 +75%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $162 +$64 +40%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 +$20 +39%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $680 −$8 -1%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 12 $1 $0 +50%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $46 +$8 +17%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $29 +$8 +26%
Map Handicap: GE (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5) Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 10 $38 +$42 +108%
Will B8 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $48 +$42 +89%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $58 +$42 +73%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $32 +$13 +41%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $37 +$33 +89%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $3 $0 +3%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) Jun 09 $6 +$1 +18%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 09 $285 −$15 -5%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +82%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 09 $25 +$25 +100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $24 +$36 +150%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $48 +$52 +109%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 08 $256 +$65 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 62¢ $16 45m
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 89¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 89¢ $36 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 55¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 62¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 50¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 50¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY TDK 62¢ $5 2h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Melsik Baghdasaryan 25¢ $22 10h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY Gen.G Global Academy 43¢ $13 36h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY Gen.G Global Academy 44¢ $4 36h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY Gen.G Global Academy 44¢ $34 36h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY Gen.G Global Academy 44¢ $0 39h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 57¢ $43 2d
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 50¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 53¢ $4 2d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 58¢ $3 2d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 51¢ $10 2d
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 52¢ $42 2d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 58¢ $26 2d
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY Gen.G Global Academy 45¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $39 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $179 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $62 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $886.25 · official $885.51 (match) · 3500 history records