Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1769…c969 politics 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 22L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$504per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$11
other 32% −$4
economics 12% −$5
crypto 10% −$3
sports 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 20 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 23 -0.3% -9.8% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,151) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage93d
Avg bet$504
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $55 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 25 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 24 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $1,159 −$1 -0%
French election called by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $1,168 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $1,110 −$3 -0%
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 23 $53 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,218 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,221 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 23 $1,151 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 16 $226 −$3 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $21 $0 -2%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 01 $166 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Apr 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Apr 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 25? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $186 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 24h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 24h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 24h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,153 24h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 24h
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $1,132 24h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 25h
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $1,101 25h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 25h
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $820 25h
Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $32 25h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 25h
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $253 25h
Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,074 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $56 47h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,158 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,117 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 2d
French election called by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,162 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
French election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,152 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $824 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records