Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
17 0x1770…d2eb world 5 markets active 3d ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-8%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% −$15
other 4% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -54.7% -59.0% 0% 0% -22.7%
≤30d 5 -42.7% -48.2% 20% 0% -17.2%
≤90d 5 -42.7% -48.2% 20% 0% -17.2%
all 5 -42.7% -48.2% 20% 0% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.2% 0% -17.2%
10% -53.1% 0% -25.1%
15% -57.7% 0% -32.4%
20% -61.8% 0% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage11d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $90 −$7 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $114 −$13 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $95 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 83¢ $83 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 90¢ $90 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $101 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $19 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $95 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records