Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:27:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
17 0x1771…6796 crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,496 (-11%) realized −$680 · open −$816
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%24W / 28L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,661now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$785
7 days−$785
14 days−$777
30 days+$715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$322
world 21% −$791
culture 16% −$596
other 10% −$481
sports 3% −$73
tech 1% +$36
finance 1% −$117
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -88.5% -89.6% 0% 0% -60.2%
≤30d 15 -32.7% -39.1% 40% 33% +0.7%
≤90d 23 -25.1% -32.3% 43% 39% -4.8%
all 52 -22.7% -30.1% 46% 42% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 42% -17.0%
10% -36.8% 40% -25.0%
15% -42.9% 23% -32.2%
20% -48.5% 19% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$113 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$1,661
Realized−$680
Unrealized−$816
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses24 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)52 / 58
History coverage106d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $500 $558 +$58 (+12%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $867 $480 −$386 (-45%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $500 $460 −$39 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 27¢ 8¢ $258 $76 −$183 (-71%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $251 $70 −$182 (-72%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Yes 43¢ 8¢ $102 $18 −$84 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,024 −$445 -44%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Jun 17 $27 −$22 -83%
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 17 $182 −$150 -82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $196 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 04 $106 +$102 +97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $988 +$299 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $103 +$31 +30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,288 +$1,035 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $100 +$25 +25%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $72 +$63 +88%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $46 +$27 +59%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Ch May 16 $53 −$7 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $100 +$43 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $442 −$351 -79%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Utah Valley Wolverines Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bradley Braves vs. Dayton Flyers Mar 19 $12 +$10 +88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 6? Mar 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1PM ET Mar 18 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 18 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 18 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12PM ET Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Dfrag Wi Mar 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98t Mar 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $550 −$521 -95%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Zadar: Stefano Travaglia vs Mili Poljicak Mar 18 $25 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 18 $173 −$173 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 17 $164 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 17 $25 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $109 +$26 +24%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 16 $115 +$54 +47%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $230 +$69 +30%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $648 +$175 +27%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $50 +$27 +54%
Houston Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 15 $48 +$37 +78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl Mar 14 $26 +$21 +82%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $20 +$6 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $119 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $49 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $579 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $500 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $500 23h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $240 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $446 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $42 25h
Will Solana reach $100 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 25h
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $33 25h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,024 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 12d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 12d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 12d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes 28¢ $202 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $204 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 57¢ $208 12d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 14d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 14d
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? SELL Yes 58¢ $1,287 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY Yes 42¢ $988 14d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,660.86 · official $1,660.86 (match) · 174 history records