Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1772…79dd weather 1076 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$465 (+1%) realized +$461 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1041W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day81.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$964now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$53
14 days−$14
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 -0.8% -10.3% 98% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 679 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 1057 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -9.8%
all 1057 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$40 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$964
Realized+$461
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1041 / 16
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1057 / 1076
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day81.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1057 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? No 97¢ 98¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? No 96¢ 98¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? No 97¢ 96¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 99¢ 94¢ $46 $43 −$3 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? No 96¢ 99¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 2? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 5? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 28? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 19? Jun 18 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? Jun 17 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 16 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C or higher on June 4? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $46 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $33 34m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $45 52m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $10 53m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $16 53m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $19 53m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $33 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $45 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $49 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $45 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $32 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $11 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $964.21 · official $964.21 (match) · 3500 history records