Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:29:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1773…c1fe crypto 460 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,072 (-17%) realized −$5,073 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%144W / 314L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$91
14 days−$205
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$5,315
other 2% −$228
world 1% −$9
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.9% -31.2% 36% 36% -0.1%
≤30d 33 -38.5% -44.4% 33% 33% -19.2%
≤90d 196 -44.7% -49.9% 24% 23% -33.4%
all 458 -21.2% -28.7% 31% 29% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 29% -26.9%
10% -35.5% 26% -33.9%
15% -41.7% 23% -40.3%
20% -47.5% 21% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$44 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$5,073
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses144 / 314
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)458 / 460
History coverage112d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $122 $123 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $181 +$58 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $65 +$65 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $53 +$44 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $157 +$348 +221%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$17 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $120 +$80 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $65 +$48 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $125 −$104 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $128 +$43 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 09 $25 +$20 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 09 $61 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 09 $61 −$7 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 09 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 09 $72 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 09 $159 −$15 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 09 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 09 $181 −$7 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $239 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $505 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.72 · official $122.72 (match) · 2272 history records