Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:03:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1774…3006 crypto 1370 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$556 (-5%) realized −$556 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%634W / 706L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$3
14 days−$35
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$425
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 -5.7% -14.7% 17% 17% -10.6%
≤30d 512 -12.6% -20.9% 25% 25% -15.0%
≤90d 867 -4.3% -13.4% 34% 34% -12.7%
all 1340 -2.0% -11.3% 47% 42% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 42% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 31% -21.7%
15% -27.6% 24% -29.2%
20% -34.7% 18% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$556
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses634 / 706
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1340 / 1370
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1340 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$7 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$13 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$14 +643%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records