Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x1775…85b0
weather · 322 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$703 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$629 · open +$79
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$418
Realized+$629
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses116 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)362 / 322
History coverage51d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day63.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 6 History 362 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days+$329
14 days+$785
30 days+$1,675
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Yes 74¢ 99¢ $288 $386 +$98 (+34%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $23 $2 −$22 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 2? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 11? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 2? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 15? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 11? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 15? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 22? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 11 Jun 13 $1 −$3 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 16? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 11 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 15? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 22? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 18? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 20? Jun 13 $34 −$90 -266%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 16? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 16? Jun 13 $0 $0 -328%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 16? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 12 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 16? Jun 13 $0 −$13 -3836%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 6? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 16? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on April 18? Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 19? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 15? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 21? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on April 14? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 19? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 16? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 11 Jun 13 $0 $0 -464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$12 -206%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 22? Jun 13 $11 −$70 -620%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Mar Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 4? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 16? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 21? Jun 13 $24 −$21 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 21? Jun 13 $0 −$17 -12706%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 16? Jun 13 $3 −$14 -538%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 1 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 17? Jun 13 $4 +$49 +1260%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 16? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 16? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 10? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 6? Jun 13 $29 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 21? Jun 13 $1 −$9 -830%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $66 +$17 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$6 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 98% +$1,191
sports 1% −$22
crypto 1% −$140
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 90¢ $31 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 59m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 90¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 71¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 65¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 80¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $202 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -31.6% -38.1% 26% 21% +2.6%
≤30d 299 -6.3% -15.3% 30% 23% +4.7%
≤90d 362 -5.5% -14.5% 32% 25% -1.6%
all 362 -5.5% -14.5% 32% 25% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover63.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 25% -1.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 21% -11.0%
15% -30.1% 18% -19.6%
20% -37.0% 14% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $418.35 · official $418.35 (match) · 3500 history records