Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1779…8b67 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$1
world 34% +$5
crypto 8% −$1
politics 6% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 3% $0
weather 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.4% -6.5% 45% 9% -8.3%
≤30d 13 +3.0% -6.9% 46% 8% -8.3%
≤90d 15 +3.2% -6.6% 53% 7% -8.2%
all 46 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 4% -9.0%
10% -21.1% 2% -17.7%
15% -28.7% 0% -25.7%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage430d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $52 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $42 +$1 +3%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $6 +$2 +33%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $45 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $58 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $8 $0 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $52 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $32 +$1 +3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $17 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $47 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $2 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 25 $15 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Will 'Hurry Up Tomorrow' gross less than $4.4m opening weekend? May 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or below on May 12? May 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 11 $19 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 08 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 05 $2 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 25 $3 $0 -18%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in his first 100 days? Apr 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $81000 and $83000 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 23 $19 −$1 -6%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 20 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $52 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $17 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes $6 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $5 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $8 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $45 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $45 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $15 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.49 · official $51.49 (match) · 144 history records