Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
17 0x177b…cb59 crypto 633 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (224 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$21,934 (+35%) realized +$21,937 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%339W / 629L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day224.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$593
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (224 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 491 -68.9% -71.9% 13% 13% -66.6%
≤30d 968 -34.7% -41.0% 35% 34% -32.3%
≤90d 968 -34.7% -41.0% 35% 34% -32.3%
all 968 -34.7% -41.0% 35% 34% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover224.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.0% 34% -32.3%
10% ← realistic here -46.6% 29% -38.8%
15% -51.8% 19% -44.7%
20% -56.5% 13% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$64 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$21,937
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses339 / 629
Open positions1
Markets (closed)968 / 633
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$98
Trades / day224.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 968 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 40¢ 22¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 398 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $71 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $48 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $22 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $23 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $18 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $13 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $76 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.51 · official $3.51 (match) · 3500 history records