Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
17 0x177e…c244 sports 267 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$553 (+1%) realized +$855 · open −$302
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%124W / 140L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$1,270est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$685now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$351
7 days−$1,548
14 days+$1,487
30 days+$1,877
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$402
crypto 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -7.2% -16.1% 40% 40% -18.3%
≤30d 147 -5.3% -14.3% 46% 44% -4.4%
≤90d 264 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 45% -9.4%
all 264 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 45% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 45% -9.4%
10% -20.8% 42% -18.1%
15% -28.5% 41% -26.0%
20% -35.5% 34% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$179 vs −$162 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$685
Realized+$855
Unrealized−$302
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses124 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,270
Open positions3
Markets (closed)264 / 267
History coverage72d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $369 $366 −$2 (-1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 46¢ 46¢ $322 $318 −$4 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 31¢ 0¢ $297 $0 −$297 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $468 +$533 +114%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $955 −$6 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $328 −$328 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $550 −$550 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $746 −$215 -29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,506 +$1,082 +72%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $702 +$459 +65%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $552 −$544 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $464 −$458 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $181 +$19 +11%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $358 −$358 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $830 +$180 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $311 +$532 +171%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $228 +$110 +48%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $206 −$202 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $297 −$264 -89%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $230 −$229 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $149 −$146 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $659 +$351 +53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $231 −$228 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $207 +$198 +96%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $93 +$104 +112%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $123 +$227 +185%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $412 +$204 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $149 +$263 +176%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $200 −$197 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $377 +$12 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $484 −$140 -29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $334 +$150 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $397 −$188 -48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $236 +$241 +102%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $201 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $270 −$270 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $429 −$15 -4%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $194 +$182 +94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $157 −$157 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $639 −$633 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $110 −$110 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $424 −$424 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $220 +$651 +296%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $512 −$504 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $126 −$125 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $302 −$5 -2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $214 +$226 +106%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $445 −$439 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $335 −$329 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $578 +$190 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $371 26m
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $327 26m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 18¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 18¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 18¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 18¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 36¢ $257 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 66¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 66¢ $59 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 66¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 66¢ $698 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 66¢ $198 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 66¢ $1,009 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 92¢ $681 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 92¢ $184 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 92¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 92¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 92¢ $91 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $292 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $43 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $19 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 81¢ $474 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $685.05 · official $685.05 (match) · 1301 history records