Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1784…7a77 other 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$97 (-0%) realized −$79 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate61%74W / 47L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$614per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$6,877now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$68
politics 28% −$40
sports 14% −$11
weather 12% +$11
world 5% −$12
crypto 4% −$4
economics 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.0% -6.8% 78% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 +3.0% -6.8% 78% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 +2.5% -7.3% 83% 0% -9.8%
all 121 -3.4% -12.6% 61% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 4% -9.7%
10% -20.9% 1% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$6,877
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses74 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)121 / 129
History coverage613d
Avg bet$614
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $2,794 $2,792 −$1 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 81¢ $1,630 $1,617 −$13 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,245 $1,244 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 85¢ $453 $452 −$0 (-0%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $405 $405 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $313 $313 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 94¢ $53 $51 −$2 (-4%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 24 $7 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 23? Jun 24 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2,193 −$4 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2,826 −$14 -0%
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Jun 23 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 21? Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 21? Jun 23 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on Mar May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C or higher on March 27? May 20 $3 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? May 20 $24 $0 +2%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Feb 25 $8 $0 +1%
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark Feb 25 $9 +$1 +6%
US mobile/internet outages caused by Iran? Feb 25 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on January 21 Jan 22 $5,100 +$5 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 21 $5,300 −$5 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 48-49°F on January 2 Jan 21 $3,656 +$4 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $4,189 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $4,700 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $7,676 −$8 -0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? Jan 19 $21 $0 +1%
Khamenei public appearance by Friday? Jan 15 $43 $0 -1%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $28 −$5 -16%
Cellular outage on Jan 14 caused by a hack? Jan 15 $0 $0 -100%
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? Jan 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during t Jan 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jan 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in December? Jan 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 33 and 34 million Jan 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 31 and 32 million Jan 08 $11 −$9 -83%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 32 and 33 million Jan 08 $25 $0 +2%
Will Tim Walz activate the National Guard in MN by March 31? Jan 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get 35 million or more views Jan 08 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? Jan 08 $19 −$2 -13%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Jan 08 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 17? Jan 08 $28 −$8 -30%
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? Jan 08 $22 −$3 -12%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 34 and 35 million Jan 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Jan 08 $4 $0 +0%
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 08 $19 −$1 -4%
Vitality Dominates HLTV Awards Parlay Jan 08 $8 $0 -5%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 08 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? Jan 08 $14 $0 -1%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Jan 08 $25 $0 -2%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m? Jan 08 $43 −$3 -7%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 08 $32 −$2 -6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jan 08 $40 −$7 -19%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jan 08 $7 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $149 8m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $28 12m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $770 48m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $137 50m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $62 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $17 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $21 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $421 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $76 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $455 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $64 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $216 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $1,639 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $2,798 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $3,211 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $313 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $3,092 10h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $2,189 12h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $2,812 14h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $406 14h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $2,826 14h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $2,193 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $3,106 14h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 99¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 21? BUY No 94¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 21? BUY No 96¢ $5 35d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,877.46 · official $6,877.46 (match) · 478 history records