Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1786…be63 crypto 1683 markets active 1d ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$127 (-1%) realized −$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%1611W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$8
14 days−$24
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -0.7% -10.2% 95% 2% -10.0%
≤30d 706 -1.3% -10.7% 96% 1% -10.6%
≤90d 1683 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 2% -10.4%
all 1683 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 2% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1611 / 72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1683 / 1683
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1683 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.93 · official $91.93 (match) · 3500 history records