Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
17 0x1788…aa80 sports 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,394 (+18%) realized +$2,549 · open −$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%137W / 88L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$155est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$338
7 days+$1,692
14 days+$1,752
30 days+$1,876
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$2,251
other 7% −$630
crypto 5% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +9.5% -0.9% 59% 59% +22.7%
≤30d 225 +4.3% -5.7% 61% 60% +3.2%
≤90d 225 +4.3% -5.7% 61% 60% +3.2%
all 225 +4.3% -5.7% 61% 60% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 60% +3.2%
10% -14.7% 56% -6.6%
15% -22.9% 51% -15.7%
20% -30.5% 42% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$42 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$2,549
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses137 / 88
Est. fees paid−$155
Open positions1
Markets (closed)225 / 226
History coverage25d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 58¢ 13¢ $200 $45 −$155 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $266 +$230 +86%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 +$4 +78%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $20 +$15 +72%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $378 +$298 +79%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $92 −$10 -11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $307 −$12 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$44 +143%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $20 +$10 +51%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $21 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $102 +$62 +60%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $51 +$31 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $51 +$68 +132%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $51 +$40 +78%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $123 +$102 +83%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $92 +$76 +82%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $770 +$966 +125%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $154 −$154 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $10 +$10 +95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $32 +$28 +87%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $103 +$52 +51%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $33 +$22 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $31 +$22 +73%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$62 +121%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $20 +$13 +66%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $20 +$15 +72%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $143 +$63 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $31 +$35 +115%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $368 +$249 +68%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $26 +$19 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $205 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $61 3h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Laslo Djere 100¢ $496 14h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 53¢ $82 14h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 50¢ $82 14h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 52¢ $102 14h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $95 16h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 51¢ $51 17h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 52¢ $51 17h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $20 24h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $5 25h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 100¢ $676 37h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 54¢ $378 38h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $82 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $295 38h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 41h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $92 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $301 41h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 42h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $51 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 42¢ $51 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 100¢ $31 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 55¢ $23 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 41¢ $31 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 40¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.83 · official $50.01 · 534 history records