Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1788…862c crypto 121 markets active 3d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$131 (-10%) realized −$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%48W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$168
14 days−$162
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$126
other 11% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -26.2% -33.2% 31% 31% -27.5%
≤30d 121 -14.6% -22.7% 40% 39% -20.6%
≤90d 121 -14.6% -22.7% 40% 39% -20.6%
all 121 -14.6% -22.7% 40% 39% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 39% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 35% -28.2%
15% -36.9% 31% -35.1%
20% -43.1% 29% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses48 / 73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage11d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $32 −$31 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$23 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$21 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $29 +$16 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$37 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$8 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$10 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$16 +117%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$15 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$16 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$12 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -17%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 −$9 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$19 +132%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$7 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$3 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$8 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$11 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$12 +163%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$25 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $18 +$23 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$8 +89%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$16 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$10 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$14 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $32 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $22 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 328 history records