Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:47:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
17 0x178e…cb5a sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 708d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$99 (+3%) realized +$99 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate64%37W / 21L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$86
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$72
sports 20% +$30
crypto 0% −$8
politics 0% +$5
world 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 3% -7.0%
≤30d 29 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 3% -7.0%
≤90d 31 -5.7% -14.7% 90% 3% -7.4%
all 58 -7.9% -16.7% 64% 16% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 16% -6.8%
10% -24.7% 16% -15.7%
15% -32.0% 14% -23.9%
20% -38.6% 7% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

708d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses37 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage708d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $48 +$2 +4%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $50 +$1 +2%
Bae Junho: 2+ goals Jun 25 $818 +$32 +4%
Endrick: 2+ assists Jun 25 $870 +$30 +3%
Ermedin Demirović: 3+ goals Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Dženis Burnić: 2+ goals Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $49 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $78 +$1 +1%
Christian Fassnacht: 2+ goals Jun 24 $628 +$22 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Marcinko vs Birrell Jun 24 $48 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $49 +$1 +3%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $57 $0 +0%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 24 $19 +$1 +3%
Cédric Bakambu: 2+ goals Jun 24 $23 $0 +1%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $31 +$1 +3%
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) Jun 24 $36 +$1 +2%
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ assists Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) Jun 22 $27 +$1 +2%
Basilashvili vs. Ymer: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $20 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Butvilas vs Echargui Jun 22 $19 +$1 +6%
Set 1 Winner: Acosta vs Galarneau Jun 22 $19 +$1 +6%
Set 2 Winner: Hsu vs Sakellaridis Jun 22 $19 +$1 +4%
Set 2 Winner: Brancaccio vs Gea Jun 22 $19 +$1 +8%
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $3 +$1 +40%
Will VJ Edgecombe be the first pick of the 2025 NBA Draft? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Apr 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jan 18 $5 +$9 +178%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 14 $11 +$12 +113%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) Dec 11 $10 +$5 +47%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Vitality (BO1) Dec 07 $14 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) Dec 02 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Apr 27 $2 $0 -5%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Pershing Square IPO in 2024? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Macron out as president of France in 2024? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Mar 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? Nov 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel military response against Iran in October? Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election? Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race? Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Nov 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana above $155 on October 4? Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Jumper airdrop by September 30? Oct 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 98¢ $50 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 2h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 96¢ $43 2h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 4h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 96¢ $48 5h
Endrick: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $48 8h
Endrick: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $48 8h
Endrick: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $48 8h
Endrick: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $48 8h
Endrick: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $48 8h
Endrick: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $48 8h
Endrick: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $48 8h
Endrick: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $48 8h
Endrick: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $48 8h
Endrick: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $48 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 168 history records