Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
17 0x1792…f173 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 420d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,555 (+34%) realized +$1,555 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate73%36W / 13L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$1,526
crypto 43% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +5.0% -5.0% 94% 39% -10.9%
≤30d 31 +5.0% -5.0% 94% 39% -10.9%
≤90d 31 +5.0% -5.0% 94% 39% -10.9%
all 49 +55.4% +40.6% 73% 39% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.6% 39% +13.6%
10% +27.1% 20% +2.7%
15% +14.8% 16% -7.2%
20% +3.6% 14% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +109% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$145 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

420d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,555
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses36 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage420d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $91 −$90 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $152 −$150 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $101 +$11 +10%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $235 −$235 -100%
Thunder vs. Pacers Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves May 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics May 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets May 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers May 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers May 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors May 13 $250 +$143 +57%
Celtics vs. Knicks May 13 $200 +$625 +312%
Nuggets vs. Thunder May 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Thunder vs. Nuggets May 10 $150 +$470 +314%
Knicks vs. Celtics May 08 $100 +$524 +524%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves May 07 $100 +$212 +212%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers May 07 $45 −$6 -14%
Knicks vs. Celtics May 06 $40 +$1,122 +2806%
Nuggets vs. Thunder May 06 $200 −$130 -65%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Apr 30 $57 +$67 +117%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records