Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
17 0x1793…4ebb sports 1812 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$431 (+1%) realized +$440 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%975W / 791L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$169est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$168
14 days+$182
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$601
world 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +20.2% +8.8% 65% 64% +4.0%
≤30d 302 +7.9% -2.4% 57% 57% -4.2%
≤90d 1022 +0.5% -9.1% 54% 53% -9.1%
all 1766 +0.3% -9.3% 55% 55% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 55% -7.7%
10% -18.0% 54% -16.6%
15% -25.9% 52% -24.6%
20% -33.1% 43% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$440
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses975 / 791
Est. fees paid−$169
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1766 / 1812
History coverage153d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1766 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vukic Aleksandar Vukic 55¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Emilio Nava 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Tommy Paul 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Linda Noskova 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Zverev 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Matteo Arnaldi 66¢ 56¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Karolina Pliskova 48¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedallah Shelbayh Alexander Shevchenko 66¢ 35¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzumhur Damir Dzumhur 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tagger Lilli Tagger 42¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Christopher OConnell 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Sebastian Ofner 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti Marco Trungelliti 49¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 487 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $10 +$15 +146%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $10 +$5 +46%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $5 +$12 +226%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $10 +$5 +51%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $5 +$7 +146%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $10 +$6 +57%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $5 +$6 +119%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $5 +$7 +140%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $5 +$5 +100%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $75 −$7 -9%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $10 +$17 +163%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $20 +$8 +39%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $20 −$13 -62%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $10 −$6 -63%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $10 −$6 -58%
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 60¢ $10 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Lilli Tagger 42¢ $5 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Karolina Pliskova 48¢ $10 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Sebastian Ofner 49¢ $5 3h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 63¢ $10 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti BUY Marco Trungelliti 49¢ $5 3h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 34¢ $5 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 56¢ $10 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Emilio Nava 67¢ $10 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu BUY Aleksandar Vukic 55¢ $10 4h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall BUY Alexander Shevchenko 66¢ $10 4h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzum BUY Damir Dzumhur 47¢ $5 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 66¢ $10 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 62¢ $10 24h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Karolina Pliskova 60¢ $10 25h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Linda Noskova 68¢ $10 25h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 53¢ $10 25h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Marie Bouzkova 60¢ $10 25h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Brandon Nakashima 30¢ $5 25h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Laslo Djere 50¢ $10 25h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 40¢ $10 25h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 60¢ $10 25h
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 61¢ $10 25h
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide BUY Dalibor Svrcina 49¢ $5 25h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 46¢ $10 2d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 40¢ $5 2d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 40¢ $5 2d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 49¢ $10 2d
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 56¢ $10 2d
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 67¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.72 · official $95.72 (match) · 3088 history records