Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1793…5fec other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-3%) realized −$41 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate60%21W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$70
14 days−$79
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$25
other 32% −$22
sports 9% −$18
politics 5% −$18
finance 3% +$20
economics 2% +$21
crypto 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -20.1% -27.7% 46% 38% -25.3%
≤30d 23 -29.5% -36.2% 43% 35% -22.0%
≤90d 35 -12.8% -21.1% 60% 43% -15.8%
all 35 -12.8% -21.1% 60% 43% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 43% -15.8%
10% -28.7% 26% -23.9%
15% -35.6% 20% -31.3%
20% -41.9% 14% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$14 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses21 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)35 / 48
History coverage117d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $53 $48 −$5 (-10%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 23¢ 95¢ $10 $41 +$31 (+309%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? No 37¢ 36¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 52¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+150%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+132%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Yes 67¢ 7¢ $14 $2 −$13 (-89%)
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $27 +$9 +32%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 24 $29 −$28 -97%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $10 +$18 +179%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $24 +$2 +8%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? Jun 23 $34 −$7 -21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $83 +$17 +21%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $46 +$8 +18%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $72 −$33 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12 +$5 +45%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $107 +$19 +17%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 11 $21 +$14 +68%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $9 +$9 +92%
Will Declan Rice record the most yellow cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champion May 31 $30 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 28 $10 +$2 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 28 $10 +$5 +52%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 28 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? May 08 $10 +$13 +127%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Apr 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026 BUY No 37¢ $25 1h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 3d
Will Darren Jones be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4d
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? SELL No 2¢ $1 5d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $27 5d
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? SELL Yes 15¢ $27 6d
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? BUY Yes 18¢ $34 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $25 6d
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY No 62¢ $29 6d
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 6d
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15- BUY Yes 5¢ $10 6d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $55 6d
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i BUY Yes 67¢ $15 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 7d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $24 7d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $16 8d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $22 8d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $38 8d
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $50 8d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $30 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $53 9d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 9d
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $125 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.98 · official $189.98 (match) · 148 history records