Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x1798…3c1c crypto 315 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$941 (-10%) realized −$941 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%152W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days−$1,805
14 days−$1,377
30 days−$1,237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$568
other 33% −$516
sports 10% −$25
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -49.2% -54.0% 19% 15% -46.8%
≤30d 106 -19.9% -27.6% 34% 28% -28.1%
≤90d 166 -12.2% -20.5% 46% 34% -22.2%
all 305 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 36% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 36% -20.6%
10% -25.8% 23% -28.2%
15% -33.0% 16% -35.1%
20% -39.5% 11% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$941
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses152 / 153
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 315
History coverage96d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$75 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $200 +$6 +3%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $19 +$10 +50%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $19 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$12 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$7 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $57 −$5 -9%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $113 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$50 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $204 −$11 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$10 +37%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a dr Jun 21 $10 +$37 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$14 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Singapore vs. China PR end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $45 −$5 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$2 -14%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $178 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 16¢ $31 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 29¢ $10 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 64¢ $97 6h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL 71¢ $19 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 72¢ $19 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $136.08 · 1444 history records