Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x179d…26ab sports 498 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,463 (-5%) realized −$2,457 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%167W / 328L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$1,015est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$808
14 days−$1,043
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,592
other 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -14.2% -22.3% 10% 8% -30.9%
≤30d 167 -9.1% -17.8% 19% 19% -8.3%
≤90d 488 -2.3% -11.6% 33% 31% -15.6%
all 495 -0.4% -9.9% 34% 32% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 32% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 31% -22.3%
15% -26.4% 29% -29.8%
20% -33.6% 27% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$76 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$2,457
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses167 / 328
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,015
Open positions3
Markets (closed)495 / 498
History coverage91d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 495 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $26 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $26 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$11 -27%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$14 -34%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$10 -24%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$9 -22%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$10 -24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$8 -21%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$7 -19%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$6 -16%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$7 -19%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$7 -18%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$6 -15%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$6 -16%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$7 -17%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$5 -12%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$4 -11%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$3 -9%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$6 -14%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$4 -10%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$3 -8%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$2 -4%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$4 -9%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$4 -10%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 +$16 +39%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 +$110 +276%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $39 +$186 +474%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $40 +$435 +1083%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 16 $153 −$153 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $27 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $27 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $31 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $32 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $34 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $33 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $33 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $34 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $34 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $33 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $35 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $36 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $37 2h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $34 2h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $36 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $37 2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $37 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $37 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $40 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $38 2h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $38 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.75 · official $55.75 (match) · 2262 history records