Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x179e…2fe3 weather 465 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$436 (-16%) realized −$431 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate62%276W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$40
14 days+$51
30 days−$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$230
sports 17% −$23
other 15% −$176
world 5% +$11
politics 3% −$3
culture 2% −$6
crypto 2% −$4
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -15.6% -23.7% 56% 48% -2.7%
≤30d 258 -16.7% -24.7% 58% 39% -25.1%
≤90d 408 -15.2% -23.2% 61% 39% -24.0%
all 447 -14.2% -22.3% 62% 39% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 39% -23.8%
10% -29.8% 27% -31.1%
15% -36.6% 18% -37.7%
20% -42.8% 11% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$431
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses276 / 171
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)447 / 465
History coverage100d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? No 63¢ 63¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 24? No 54¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+5%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Chirayu Rana divorced? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 74¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 91¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 92¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 49¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 24 $41 +$27 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $44 +$15 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 23? Jun 24 $54 +$21 +39%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 24 $20 +$5 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? Jun 24 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $51 +$28 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 23 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 22? Jun 23 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 23 $10 +$3 +30%
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $9 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $9 +$4 +48%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 22 $9 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 22 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? Jun 22 $6 +$5 +92%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$12 +540%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 21 $11 +$4 +34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 +$4 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? SELL No 99¢ $68 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 63¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 24? BUY No 54¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 24? BUY No 54¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 24? BUY No 54¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 24? BUY No 54¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY No 58¢ $41 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 74¢ $12 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 74¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 74¢ $15 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 74¢ $15 19h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 23? BUY No 72¢ $54 28h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 80¢ $20 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23? BUY No 76¢ $4 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23? BUY No 76¢ $8 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23? BUY No 76¢ $8 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23? BUY No 76¢ $8 31h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $14 42h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $8 42h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $18 43h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $2 43h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $3 43h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 83¢ $6 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 86¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY No 78¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 76¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.02 · official $113.41 (match) · 1307 history records