Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17a3…2741 crypto 665 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$77 (+1%) realized +$73 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%640W / 16L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$3
14 days+$11
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$50
politics 3% +$9
finance 1% −$18
other 1% +$3
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 656 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.1%
≤90d 656 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.1%
all 656 +0.5% -9.0% 98% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 1% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses640 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)656 / 665
History coverage23d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 656 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,600 on June 28? Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 28? Jun 28 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 28? Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET Jun 28 $4 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$14 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5h
Will Ethereum reach $1,600 on June 28? BUY No 97¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 16h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $15 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.99 · official $210.94 (match) · 1325 history records