trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Yes | 30¢ | 39¢ | $9,584 | $12,619 | +$3,036 (+32%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Yes | 15¢ | 18¢ | $5,876 | $6,829 | +$953 (+16%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | Yes | 9¢ | 12¢ | $5,124 | $6,325 | +$1,201 (+23%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Yes | 7¢ | 8¢ | $2,247 | $2,813 | +$566 (+25%) |
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | No | 17¢ | 22¢ | $1,688 | $2,150 | +$462 (+27%) |
| Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+15%) |
| Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 32¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+212%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch? | May 05 | $4,831 | +$4,344 | +90% |
| Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? | May 04 | $1,519 | +$577 | +38% |
| Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? | May 04 | $1,397 | +$192 | +14% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 3 | +1363.3% | +1223.9% | 100% | 100% | +72.2% |
| all | 3 | +1363.3% | +1223.9% | 100% | 100% | +72.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +1223.9% | 100% | +72.2% |
| 10% | +1097.3% | 100% | +55.7% |
| 15% | +981.6% | 100% | +40.6% |
| 20% | +875.5% | 100% | +26.9% |