Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17a8…8624 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate87%20W / 3L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,587per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$6,085now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$26
economics 22% −$12
tech 0% +$2
other 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -4.5% -13.6% 75% 17% -9.5%
all 23 -0.5% -10.0% 87% 13% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 13% -9.5%
10% -18.6% 9% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$6,085
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses20 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage184d
Avg bet$1,587
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET Down 100¢ 100¢ $1,431 $1,434 +$3 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $4,631 +$13 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 24 $8,575 −$12 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8,602 −$1 -0%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the we May 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont May 25 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C or below on April 14 May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 25 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? Apr 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $345 end of February? Mar 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 13 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 13 $10 $0 +0%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Feb 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 30? Dec 30 $3,254 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 30? Dec 30 $4,491 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 23? Dec 29 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $500 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $22 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $178 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $326 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $306 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $466 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $424 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $499 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $277 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $222 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $372 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $392 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $211 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $287 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $212 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,084.53 · official $6,084.37 (match) · 158 history records