Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:52:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17a9…d0f4 crypto 351 markets active 20h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$85 (-3%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate65%227W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$73
14 days−$82
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -8.4% -17.1% 73% 69% -17.6%
≤30d 93 -3.9% -13.0% 75% 68% -15.1%
≤90d 344 -4.7% -13.8% 66% 45% -12.7%
all 351 -6.2% -15.2% 65% 44% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 44% -12.8%
10% -23.3% 21% -21.2%
15% -30.7% 11% -28.8%
20% -37.5% 6% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses227 / 124
Open positions0
Markets (closed)351 / 351
History coverage98d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 351 Trades
no open positions (55 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $17 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $17 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$8 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 847 history records