Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:06:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17aa…96ff other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$116 (-19%) realized −$120 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$32
14 days−$12
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$16
sports 32% −$74
crypto 1% −$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -9.8% -18.4% 45% 45% +31.6%
≤30d 23 -6.7% -15.6% 39% 39% -18.2%
≤90d 24 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 38% -18.5%
all 36 -14.1% -22.2% 42% 36% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 36% -27.4%
10% -29.7% 25% -34.4%
15% -36.5% 19% -40.7%
20% -42.7% 17% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage240d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $19 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 60¢ 66¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 +$16 +131%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 $0 -6%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$35 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 $0 +17%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$11 +447%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $76 −$30 -40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$23 +87%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 −$34 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $16 +$3 +16%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $32 −$2 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 23 $24 +$1 +3%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Feb 03 $24 −$24 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 30 $25 +$1 +4%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $3 +$4 +118%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 02 $53 −$24 -45%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $13 +$2 +16%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $20 −$1 -6%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $10 +$3 +33%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Oct 28 $20 +$5 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $15 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $28 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 5h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 41h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 41h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 41h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.17 · official $62.89 (match) · 105 history records