Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17ad…eb9c crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$819 (-7%) realized −$794 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%25W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$1,761
other 9% +$912
politics 4% +$270
world 4% −$400
sports 3% +$253
economics 2% −$10
culture 2% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +26.9% +14.8% 39% 39% -8.9%
≤30d 51 +12.4% +1.7% 39% 37% -8.0%
≤90d 61 -1.1% -10.6% 36% 34% -22.8%
all 64 +3.1% -6.7% 39% 38% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 38% -17.2%
10% -15.6% 36% -25.1%
15% -23.8% 30% -32.3%
20% -31.2% 27% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$128 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$435
Realized−$794
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses25 / 39
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage190d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $250 $240 −$10 (-4%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 47¢ 43¢ $200 $182 −$18 (-9%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $550 +$387 +70%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $402 +$98 +24%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$61 +232%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $154 +$209 +136%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$218 +214%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $103 +$180 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$50 +25%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 +$219 +711%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $102 +$441 +430%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $301 −$301 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $315 −$315 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 27 $363 +$37 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 26 $270 +$30 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 26 $320 +$80 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 26 $52 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 26 $108 −$101 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 26 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 26 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 26 $53 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 26 $120 +$80 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 26 $130 +$61 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 26 $414 −$81 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 25 $27 +$104 +391%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 25 $104 +$123 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 25 $200 −$74 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 25 $120 +$112 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 25 $137 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 25 $206 −$68 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 25 $209 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 25 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 47m
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $261 50m
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $937 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $434.83 · official $434.83 (match) · 488 history records