Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:56:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
17 0x17ad…1ae7 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-9%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$106
14 days−$140
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -44.0% -49.3% 0% 0% -49.3%
≤30d 4 -11.4% -19.8% 50% 50% -22.0%
≤90d 4 -11.4% -19.8% 50% 50% -22.0%
all 4 -11.4% -19.8% 50% 50% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 50% -22.0%
10% -27.5% 25% -29.5%
15% -34.5% 25% -36.3%
20% -40.9% 0% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$70 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage23d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 21 $240 −$106 -44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 12 $52 −$35 -66%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $113 +$54 +48%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 02 $100 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $32 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $35 29h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $96 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 26¢ $73 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $77 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $32 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 32¢ $52 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $113 17d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 85¢ $100 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records