Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:18:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
17 0x17af…b7e4 sports 115 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,781 (+14%) realized +$1,885 · open −$104
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%57W / 56L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$198est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$853
7 days−$1,069
14 days−$626
30 days+$806
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$788
other 1% +$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -13.1% -21.4% 47% 47% -33.2%
≤30d 94 +19.2% +7.8% 52% 51% -2.7%
≤90d 113 +16.4% +5.3% 50% 50% -2.6%
all 113 +16.4% +5.3% 50% 50% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 50% -2.6%
10% -4.7% 49% -11.9%
15% -13.9% 45% -20.4%
20% -22.4% 37% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$106 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$1,885
Unrealized−$104
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses57 / 56
Est. fees paid−$198
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage40d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 60¢ 58¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Donna Vekic 54¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $461 −$453 -98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $406 −$400 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $101 +$91 +90%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $102 +$126 +124%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $102 +$221 +216%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $101 +$68 +67%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $101 +$60 +60%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $78 +$56 +72%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $101 +$42 +42%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $102 +$108 +107%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $101 +$50 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $203 +$252 +124%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $101 +$74 +73%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $101 +$53 +52%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $203 −$203 -100%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $101 +$50 +50%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $51 +$574 +1117%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $101 −$101 -100%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $102 −$102 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $101 +$65 +65%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $101 +$60 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $203 +$150 +74%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $152 +$7 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $101 +$42 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $101 +$84 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $102 +$161 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $152 −$152 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $202 +$97 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 30 $82 −$82 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $101 +$63 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 60¢ $202 27m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 39¢ $224 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $237 1h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 30¢ $102 2h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 54¢ $203 5h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 27¢ $102 6h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 54¢ $101 9h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 54¢ $101 18h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 52¢ $101 23h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 51¢ $101 25h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 44¢ $102 26h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 35¢ $102 27h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 31¢ $102 30h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 67¢ $101 30h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexei Popyrin 45¢ $102 31h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 59¢ $101 2d
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 62¢ $101 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 70¢ $101 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 57¢ $78 3d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Emma Raducanu 48¢ $102 4d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic BUY Donna Vekic 66¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 22¢ $51 5d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 48¢ $102 5d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 57¢ $101 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 70¢ $101 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 49¢ $102 6d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 42¢ $102 6d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 46¢ $102 6d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 58¢ $203 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.50 · official $196.50 (match) · 244 history records