Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:31:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17af…2a45 crypto 1454 markets active 6h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,299 (-5%) realized −$4,299 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%735W / 717L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$351est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$36
14 days−$269
30 days−$708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$4,232
sports 27% +$1,622
other 9% +$901
politics 2% −$1,449
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +5.4% -4.6% 50% 50% -15.3%
≤30d 207 +4.1% -5.8% 53% 53% -23.5%
≤90d 1452 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 50% -12.6%
all 1452 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 50% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 50% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 50% -21.0%
15% -28.7% 50% -28.6%
20% -35.7% 48% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$61 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$4,299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses735 / 717
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$351
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1452 / 1454
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$64
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 55¢ 55¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$16 +79%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $45 +$22 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$25 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$18 +180%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 +$11 +140%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $8 +$10 +118%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $5 +$6 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $10 +$13 +129%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $49 −$30 -62%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $10 +$10 +97%
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Marton Fucsovics: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 +$11 +109%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $19 +$23 +117%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $10 +$9 +89%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $20 +$14 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $35 −$15 -42%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $25 +$22 +88%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $29 −$4 -15%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $20 +$22 +109%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $20 +$17 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $19 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $20 9h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $26 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $45 16h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 39h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $10 40h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $10 41h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $20 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $20 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ $15 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $10 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 50¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $10 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 42¢ $10 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 40¢ $10 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $10 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 40¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $10 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 100¢ $18 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 45¢ $8 4d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 55¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 54¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.76 · official $25.76 (match) · 3500 history records