Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

17
0x17b0…4041
politics · 103 markets active 19d ago
0.0score
+$2,573 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,673 · open −$1,101
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12,601
Realized+$3,673
Unrealized−$1,101
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses45 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage581d
Avg bet$2,565
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 3 History 100 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 65¢ 46¢ $9,946 $7,164 −$2,782 (-28%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 59¢ 88¢ $3,616 $5,381 +$1,766 (+49%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $140 $56 −$84 (-60%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1,250 $0 −$1,250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1,120 $0 −$1,120 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2,164 $0 −$2,164 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3,756 $0 −$3,756 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $980 $0 −$980 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 13? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $294 $0 −$294 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1,520 $0 −$1,520 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $4,000 $0 −$4,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $1,187 $0 −$1,187 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1,928 $0 −$1,928 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 25 $294 −$294 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma May 11 $20 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 11 $2,164 −$2,164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 11 $756 +$1,325 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 11 $3,064 +$4,596 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 11 $1,520 −$1,520 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 11 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 11 $120 +$279 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 11 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 11 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 11 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 11 $169 −$160 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 08 $671 −$671 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 08 $1,722 −$1,722 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 08 $684 +$1,840 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 05 $4,170 −$4,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 05 $3,884 −$3,756 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 05 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 05 $3,349 −$3,349 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 05 $1,474 +$2,279 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 05 $2,022 −$1,928 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 05 $2,070 −$980 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 05 $1,057 −$1,000 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 05 $1,035 +$905 +87%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 05 $1,202 −$1,187 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or higher on May 4? May 05 $1 +$1 +95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $3,034 +$1,754 +58%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $877 −$877 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 28 $1,553 −$1,553 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 28 $1,999 −$1,999 -100%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 09 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024? Jan 04 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the 49ers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 04 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Jan 04 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
2024 November hottest on record? Dec 17 $1,998 −$1,998 -100%
Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend? Dec 02 $442 −$442 -100%
Hawk Tuah token by Thanksgiving? Dec 02 $391 +$609 +156%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $12,819 −$12,819 -100%
Solana above $200 on November 15? Nov 15 $1,500 +$538 +36%
Ethereum above $3,000 on November 15? Nov 15 $2,343 +$606 +26%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? Nov 14 $3,359 −$3,209 -96%
Will Trump win Wyoming by the largest margin? Nov 14 $6,642 +$2,010 +30%
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? Nov 07 $3,000 +$2,261 +75%
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 07 $6,000 +$4,159 +69%
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election? Nov 07 $3,000 +$2,258 +75%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 06 $4,000 +$2,832 +71%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $59,351 +$36,673 +62%
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov Nov 04 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1? Nov 04 $1,896 −$1,896 -100%
Will Trump say "McDonald's" during Virginia rally on Nov 2? Nov 04 $38 +$12 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 63% +$41,193
crypto 16% −$12,215
other 11% −$21,798
sports 6% +$193
culture 4% −$3,782
economics 0% −$1,000
weather 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $12 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $12 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $75 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $12 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $61 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $11 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $20 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $69 18d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 60¢ $427 20d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 59¢ $16 20d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 59¢ $119 20d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 59¢ $119 20d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 59¢ $30 20d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 59¢ $119 20d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 59¢ $610 20d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 58¢ $2,229 20d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $2,303 27d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 30d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 30d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 30d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 31d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 31d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 30 -32.6% -39.0% 27% 27% -48.0%
all 100 -18.1% -25.9% 45% 45% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 45% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.0% 41% -17.0%
15% -39.4% 30% -25.0%
20% -45.4% 24% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,600.72 · official $12,600.72 (match) · 1802 history records