Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
17 0x17b4…62ba other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate56%45W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$13
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$37
sports 17% −$28
tech 17% +$1
finance 16% +$31
other 11% −$37
politics 3% −$3
crypto 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.0% -18.6% 71% 29% -18.1%
≤30d 18 -9.2% -17.8% 67% 33% -9.6%
≤90d 45 -22.1% -29.5% 56% 38% -7.5%
all 81 -17.1% -25.0% 56% 37% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 37% -8.5%
10% -32.2% 17% -17.3%
15% -38.7% 10% -25.3%
20% -44.7% 9% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses45 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage235d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 89¢ $135 $145 +$10 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$10 -19%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $78 +$12 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $5 −$5 -92%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $5 +$3 +55%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $2 +$3 +138%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $51 +$2 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 21 $141 +$7 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 20 $5 −$2 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $20 +$4 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 12 $10 +$2 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $10 +$2 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $66 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? May 03 $38 +$3 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? May 03 $54 +$25 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $10 +$3 +29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 26 $20 +$5 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $44 +$11 +25%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 +$8 +158%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 09 $10 −$5 -46%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 08 $60 −$18 -29%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 08 $50 −$15 -30%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 07 $42 +$24 +56%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $25 +$19 +78%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 19 $110 +$13 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Mar 18 $12 −$10 -79%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 10 $5 +$1 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 10 $5 $0 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 06 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 05 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 05 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $41 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 95¢ $12 11h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 3d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 3d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 82¢ $10 3d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY Yes 99¢ $20 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $2 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $54 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 94¢ $2 10d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 95¢ $6 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 91¢ $1 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $50 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $52 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $35 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 14d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 77¢ $5 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $90 15d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 0¢ $0 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $8 17d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Nongshim Red Force 99¢ $8 17d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 63¢ $5 17d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? BUY No 42¢ $2 22d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No 25¢ $1 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $30 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.21 · official $145.21 (match) · 210 history records