Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
17 0x17b4…6eb1 crypto 1624 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,117 (-4%) realized −$1,115 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%972W / 732L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day37.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,317
7 days−$1,326
14 days−$1,247
30 days−$1,161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$255
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 399 -19.7% -27.4% 63% 48% -33.8%
≤30d 732 -10.2% -18.8% 66% 55% -16.2%
≤90d 1704 -5.9% -14.9% 57% 51% -14.8%
all 1704 -5.9% -14.9% 57% 51% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 51% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 40% -23.0%
15% -30.4% 31% -30.4%
20% -37.3% 24% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,115
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses972 / 732
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1704 / 1624
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day37.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1704 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Up 75¢ 50¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.30 · official $3.90 (match) · 3500 history records