Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17b7…415a world 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate44%41W / 52L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$10
14 days+$7
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$11
other 20% $0
politics 17% $0
sports 10% +$1
crypto 4% −$5
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.7% -8.0% 40% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 28 +0.4% -9.2% 36% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 69 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 1% -9.3%
all 93 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 2% -9.3%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses41 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage467d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $9 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $62 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $146 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $112 +$6 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $115 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $25 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $5 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $56 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $11 −$1 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $44 +$1 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $77 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $89 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 29 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $31 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $14 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $37 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $103 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $76 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $78 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $34 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $79 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? Apr 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $67 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $3 $0 +3%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $46 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $12 7h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $12 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $8 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $33 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $29 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $30 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $49 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $47 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $8 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $49 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $49 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.16 · official $46.20 (match) · 378 history records