Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17b8…bd20 other 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$23
sports 22% −$4
other 21% −$11
crypto 13% −$8
culture 5% −$14
world 5% −$2
economics 4% −$2
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 70 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 143 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage160d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $52 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $464 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $97 −$2 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $61 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $279 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $449 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $242 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $240 −$9 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $529 −$3 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $114 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $203 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $463 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 17 $111 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $44 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $281 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 16 $234 +$1 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 15 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $164 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $329 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 12 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 12 $231 −$1 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $61 −$1 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 09 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 05 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 04 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 01 $157 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $261 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 31 $214 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $51 13d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $51 13d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $65 25d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $11 25d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $54 25d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $52 33d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $52 33d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $49 56d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $49 56d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 56d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $44 56d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $61 56d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $61 57d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $61 57d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 57d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $54 57d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $54 57d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $44 57d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $44 58d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $43 58d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $43 58d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $61 58d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $41 58d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $20 58d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $61 58d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $61 59d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $39 59d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $39 59d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $48 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.99 · official $48.99 (match) · 637 history records