Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17b9…ecf1 world 12 markets active 3d ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$114 (-10%) realized −$101 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$26
14 days−$63
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$78
finance 10% +$1
crypto 3% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -19.9% -27.6% 0% 0% -24.1%
≤30d 11 -33.4% -39.7% 27% 0% -19.3%
≤90d 11 -33.4% -39.7% 27% 0% -19.3%
all 11 -33.4% -39.7% 27% 0% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 0% -19.3%
10% -45.5% 0% -27.0%
15% -50.8% 0% -34.1%
20% -55.6% 0% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage18d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$9 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $21 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $120 −$17 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 03 $27 −$27 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $78 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $75 +$3 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $172 +$6 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $290 −$49 -17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $120 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $13 3d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $11 6d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $20 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $21 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $21 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $23 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $44 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 54¢ $43 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $37 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 57¢ $37 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $69 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $70 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $77 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $77 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $77 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $78 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $78 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $78 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $78 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $75 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $71 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $72 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $73 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $70 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? SELL Yes 16¢ $72 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 43 history records