Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
17 0x17ba…334a crypto 115 markets active 1d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%57W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$8
sports 9% −$7
other 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 46% -15.8%
≤30d 110 -5.0% -14.0% 52% 47% -15.0%
≤90d 110 -5.0% -14.0% 52% 47% -15.0%
all 110 -5.0% -14.0% 52% 47% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 47% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 35% -23.1%
15% -29.8% 29% -30.6%
20% -36.7% 23% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses57 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 115
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Co Jun 17 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 14 $0 $0 -71%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Co BUY 18¢ $1 24h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Co SELL 10¢ $1 25h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Co BUY 14¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Portugal vs BUY 18¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 38h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 65¢ $1 40h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 41h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 24¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 336 history records