Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
17 0x17bb…6506 sports 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$688 (-20%) realized −$49 · open −$639
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,068now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$329
14 days+$326
30 days+$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$654
sports 38% +$343
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +25.0% +13.1% 47% 47% +18.3%
≤30d 49 +19.9% +8.5% 45% 45% +17.9%
≤90d 49 +19.9% +8.5% 45% 45% +17.9%
all 49 +19.9% +8.5% 45% 45% +17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 45% +17.9%
10% -1.9% 43% +6.6%
15% -11.4% 43% -3.7%
20% -20.1% 35% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$16 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,068
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$639
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 66
History coverage17d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $1,687 $1,057 −$630 (-37%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg Jun 28 $10 +$14 +145%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $20 +$25 +121%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $30 +$26 +86%
Panama vs. England: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $10 +$2 +21%
Panama vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $40 +$18 +46%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $11 +$5 +46%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $41 −$40 -99%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $11 −$11 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $21 −$21 -98%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams Jun 26 $30 +$25 +83%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 26 $40 +$77 +193%
Will Trump say "China" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 +$68 +134%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: Both Jun 26 $26 +$51 +200%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Jun 26 $20 +$29 +143%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $15 +$12 +76%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U Jun 25 $26 +$51 +200%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $11 +$8 +76%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8 +$42 +510%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AN Jun 25 $10 +$125 +1217%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 −$15 -75%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $41 +$30 +73%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $20 +$14 +69%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $20 +$17 +86%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $30 +$13 +42%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $101 +$40 +40%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $81 +$54 +67%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg SELL 93¢ $24 21m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $45 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg BUY 37¢ $10 7h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $16 7h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1 BUY 15¢ $5 18h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $20 22h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 39¢ $31 22h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $30 22h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $20 22h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $41 22h
Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 T BUY 26¢ $20 22h
Panama vs. England: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $10 22h
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $11 22h
Panama vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $40 22h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 19¢ $20 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $11 24h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $21 31h
Agustín Canobbio: 1+ shots on target AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 18¢ $5 31h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND SELL 98¢ $117 31h
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 A BUY 25¢ $8 31h
Will Trump say "China" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference? BUY Yes $1 31h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $3 31h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 32h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes $2 32h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $11 32h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 32h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 32h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams SELL 73¢ $55 33h
Agustín Canobbio: 1+ shots on target AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 18¢ $10 33h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals AN BUY 11¢ $10 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,067.96 · official $1,067.96 (match) · 113 history records